The White House has given its tacit backing to Israel’s military
operation against Hamas and the Gaza Strip, a flare-up that is
threatening to seriously complicate any peace efforts envisaged by the
incoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama.

“The United States
understands that Israel needs to take actions to defend itself,” said
White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe.

“In order for the violence to stop, Hamas must stop
firing rockets into Israel and agree to respect a sustainable and
durable ceasefire.”

It is an attitude that is very similar to the one
adopted by the Bush administration during the 2006 war between Israel
and Hezbollah in Lebanon – calling for a sustainable cease-fire and a
lasting peace rather than pressuring Israel to immediately halt a
military operation that was killing civilians.

Short of a dramatic development, observers expect no
shift in this position – or the administration’s support for Israel –
during the remaining three weeks of President George W Bush’s term in
office.

Mr Bush has not made any public comments so far, and
neither has his secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice. But the state
department has been keen to stress diplomatic efforts are underway to
bring the crisis under control.

“We are encouraging all the nations in the region to
take an active part in rebuilding the cease-fire so that we can return
to the relative calm that was enjoyed in the region over the past six
months,” said state department spokesman Gordon Duguid.

He listed all the foreign leaders that Ms Rice had
spoken to, from Tzipi Livni, her Israeli counterpart, to Saudi Foreign
Minister Saud el-Faisal.

“We are working for a cease-fire now where Hamas must
stop its rocket attacks on Israel,” said Mr Duguid. “All sides then
need to respect the ceasefire.”

This is also in line with the approach taken by the Bush administration
during its second term, according to Dan Senor, a former Bush
administration official now working with the Council on Foreign
Relations (CFR) – with the White House making strong statements in
support of Israel while Condoleezza Rice leans a bit more strongly on
Israel.

The flare-up also highlights the failure of Mr Bush to bring about a peace agreement between Palestinians and Israelis.

After he launched his ambition Annapolis peace initiative in 2007, few
believed anything concrete would come out of it, but some argued that
at least Mr Bush was leaving behind a work-in-progress, with relative
calm on the ground.

Instead, the last few weeks of his presidency will be
mired in yet another crisis – the biggest Israeli offensive against
Gaza in decades.

While the escalation was pegged to a date – the end of
a six-month cease-fire on 19 December – both the Israelis and Hamas
seem to be using the political calendar in Israel and the US to
reshuffle the cards before the next administration comes in.

Israeli officials know they can count on the Bush
administration’s support but are less sure about how an Obama
administration would have reacted were they to have launched this
operation after 20 January.

Mr Senor also argued that Israel did not want a
flare-up in Gaza to be the first issue that Mr Obama would have to
contend with when he moved into the White House.

“There was a sense in Israel that action was needed as
the cease-fire was set to expire and they had to either move quickly or
wait a long time – four or six months – and that was not something
Israel could deal with,” he said.

But the developments are on such a scale that even if calm returns in a
few days, the crisis will have an impact, possibly even regional, that
will last beyond 20 January, so the Middle East is forcing itself high
onto the agenda of the incoming administration.

Mr Obama has often said he would tackle the challenge of Middle East
peace from day one, but has not given many details on how he plans to
reach the peace deal that has eluded the Clinton and Bush
administrations.

Israel’s military operation in Gaza is also likely to
limit his room for manoeuvre and diplomacy, at least in the beginning.

Mr Obama’s team, stressing that there is only one
president at a time, has kept its statements about the crisis to a
minimum, but has provided assurances of its support for Israel.

“He’s going to work closely with the Israelis,” said
David Axelrod, a senior advisor to Mr Obama. “They’re a great ally of
ours, the most important ally in the region.”

“But he will do so in a way that will promote the cause
of peace and work closely with the Israelis and the Palestinians on
that, towards that objective,” Mr Axelrod told the CBS Sunday talk show
Face the Nation.

Steve Coll, a senior CFR fellow on Middle Eastern
studies, said the Israelis were trying to do everything they could to
get political cover from the incoming administration by highlighting
statements by the president-elect, such as the one he made in August in
Sderot, the Israeli town targeted by Hamas rocket attacks.

“If somebody was sending rockets into my house where my
two daughters sleep at night, I’m going to do everything in my power to
stop that,” said Mr Obama during the visit. “And I would expect
Israelis to do the same thing.”

Gaza may well be that first international crisis that
Vice President-elect Joe Biden predicted Mr Obama would have to face
when he came into office, with both Israel and Hamas testing the
incoming leader.

And while there is a good amount of good will awaiting
Mr Obama in the Arab world, how he handles similar flare-ups during his
presidency will determine how long the honeymoon lasts.